Deadline for application

19 December 2023

Objective

Monetary policy decisions in many regions are largely based on the economic outlook. This three-day course provides an overview of the modelling and forecasting work performed by Bundesbank experts in the context of the monetary policy formulation process in the euro area. The focus is on practical aspects of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. Bundesbank experts will present elements of their regular work of analysing and forecasting macroeconomic developments. The course gives an overview of the models and forecasting tools used by Bundesbank experts, distinguishing between short-term and medium-term analysis. In addition, the course will illustrate specific analytical approaches used by Bundesbank staff to assess developments in selected segments of the economy, such as the labour market.

Contents

• The current macroeconomic outlook for the German economy
• Analysis and forecasting of the international environment
• Short-term GDP forecasting at the Bundesbank
• Inflation analysis and forecasting (incl. the use of micro data)
• The Bundesbank’s macroeconometric model and its applications
• Potential outputand medium-term projections
• Analysis and projections of labour market and wagedevelopments
• Research projectsrelated to macroeconomic forecasting

Target group

Mid-level central bank officials working in the area of macroeconomic analysis or projections. Candidates who wish to apply for the course should have a sound grasp of macroeconomic theory, and are expected to have a good understanding of basic econometrics and experience in the use of commonly used modelling techniques.

Participants knowledgeable in the area of microdata for inflation analysis and forecasting are invited to contribute short presentations based on their own expertise in this field to facilitate an interactive course.

Please note:

This course does not cover topics related to the deeper analysis of monetary and financial developments, which are addressed in a separate course. Nor does the course provide an introduction to econometrics or specific modelling techniques.