In the period from January to June 2024, the Bundesbank removed significantly more counterfeit money from circulation in Germany than in the six months prior, detecting around 38,600 counterfeit euro banknotes with a nominal value of €2.4 million. This was 29% more than in the second half of 2023. Meanwhile, the total loss arising from counterfeit banknotes was only slightly up, by just under 5%. The increase was driven by easily identifiable counterfeits, especially of €10 and €20 banknotes, said Burkhard Balz, the Bundesbank’s Executive Board member whose remit includes cash management.

German economic output probably grew somewhat more slowly in the second quarter than expected, the Bundesbank writes in its latest Monthly Report. According to the Bundesbank, temporary hopes of an end to the weakness in the industrial sector were not realised, as industrial output declined sharply in May. In contrast to this, the recovery in the services sector continued, buoyed in part by private consumption. The inflation rate was somewhat lower again in June. Bundesbank economists believe that economic activity is likely to strengthen somewhat in the third quarter, but could fall a little short of the expectations expressed in the Bundesbank’s June forecast for Germany.

Over the past few years, growth in loans to enterprises in Germany has been characterised by unusually strong ups and downs. The current issue of the Monthly Report assesses whether such developments in lending were in line with economic and interest rate developments, and examines the role played by credit supply and credit demand factors. The Bundesbank’s economists anticipate a gradual recovery in loans to enterprises starting from the second half of 2024.

Energy prices skyrocketed and the cost of groceries went up significantly: life suddenly became more expensive in many places starting in early 2021. In the current issue of the Monthly Report, the Bundesbank’s economists examine what was behind these price increases, why inflation has since eased again and what role was played by central banks. They also reveal why the path back to price stability has posed no major disruptions to the real economy so far.