How does central bank communication affect the economy? Artificial intelligence provides new insights: the Monetary-Intelligent Language Agent (MILA) model developed at the Bundesbank analyses monetary policy statements and assesses the signals they send out – from restrictive to accommodative. This presents promising opportunities for better shaping monetary policy messaging. But AI-assisted analyses also pose inherent risks, such as diminishing diversity of opinion.

According to the current Monthly Report, access to cash in Germany is currently largely secure despite the progressive reduction in ATMs and bank branches. For example, the majority of the population has access to an ATM or bank counter within five kilometres, although urban areas are noticeably better served than rural areas. The Bank’s experts write that, in order for the freedom of choice between cash and digital means of payment to endure, infrastructure for the supply of cash must remain intact in future. 

Freedom of choice when making payments must be maintained. Bundesbank Executive Board member Burkhard Balz, Finance Minister of the state of Baden-Württemberg Danyal Bayaz and Martin Dallmeier, Deputy Chairman of the Board at dm-drogerie markt were all in agreement about this. At the launch of the new Bits & Bargeld event series in Heidelberg, they discussed cash, payments and the digital euro. Sissi Hajtmanek moderated the evening’s proceedings.

Germany is facing major challenges. Smart, consistent and reliable economic policy could set out the framework and unleash the sense of change we now need, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel commented. In a speech at the Berlin School of Economics, Mr Nagel presented twelve points that he believes are key to boosting growth in Germany. For each set of topics, he examined four points: for an increased supply of labour, for the necessary transition towards net zero, and for a more dynamic corporate sector.

The Bundesbank is expanding its reform proposals for central government’s debt brake. With regard to the debt ratio, Germany is doing well by international standards. Our reform proposal for the debt brake preserves sound public finances whilst at the same time facilitating urgently needed investment, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said. The concept supports measures needed to strengthen infrastructure and defence whilst ensuring sustainable public finances over the long term, in line with European rules.

As in 2023, the monetary policy measures of the past few years shaped the Bundesbank’s annual accounts in the 2024 financial year. It recorded an accumulated loss of €19.2 billion for the reporting year, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel and First Deputy Governor Sabine Mauderer said at the press conference presenting the Bank’s annual accounts. The Bundesbank has a sound balance sheet, Mr Nagel stressed, explaining that the value of its revaluation reserves was many times greater than the current and prospective accumulated losses.

According to the current issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report, German economic output fell surprisingly significantly in the fourth quarter of 2024. The main reasons for this were declining exports and weak industrial output, especially in the automotive sector, while private and government consumption expenditure rose. The labour market outlook also suggests a continued cooldown.

The Bundesbank registered roughly 72,400 counterfeit euro banknotes in German payments in 2024. Thus, the number of counterfeits was up by 28 % compared with the previous year. At the same time, however, the loss arising from counterfeiting went down. Overall, the incidence of counterfeit money remains moderate in scale: statistically speaking, in 2024 there were nine counterfeit banknotes per 10,000 inhabitants, said Burkhard Balz, member of the Bundesbank’s Executive Board.

I am confident that our financial system can mobilise the necessary financing, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said in a speech at the Adam Smith Business School in Glasgow, where he talked about the financing for the transition to a greenhouse gas-neutral economy. He also elaborated on what the potential financing mix to fund the transition might look like. Furthermore, Nagel emphasised the need for a strong banking system and improved access to capital market financing. 

Bundesbank Executive Board member Burkhard Balz has spoken out in favour of a future that includes cash: Let us work together to ensure that cash keeps its time-tested place in an increasingly digitalised world, he said in his speech at the Bundesbank’s cash symposium in Berlin. In order to guarantee freedom of choice in payments, access to and acceptance of cash must be maintained, said Mr Balz.