The world has been turned on its head and Germany’s economy is stagnating. But in times of geopolitical tensions, a strong German economy is critically important for an autonomous Europe. Public investment will rise sharply now that the special funds have been adopted. While this will unleash positive growth effects, it won’t be enough to significantly expand the economy over a medium to long-term horizon. The German economy itself needs to get match fit to compete internationally – by becoming more agile, more digitalised and more innovative. To achieve this, it is also going to require a great deal more private investment, and that means mobilising vast swathes of private capital. A strong European financial ecosystem is critically important for an autonomous Europe that can be relied on in turbulent geopolitical times.

In this context, “autonomous” means a European real economy capable of obtaining funding via the European financial ecosystem and reducing its dependencies on non-European sources of capital. Bearing this in mind, a strong financial centre in Germany and Europe is crucially important, as is a more robust capital market culture.

Germany’s potential growth – a measure of the country’s trend rate of growth – is languishing at a multi-year low. Compared with an average of 1.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) between 2011 and 2019, it is a mere 0.4% today.

At the same time, Germany is Europe’s number one location for patent applications, and also ranks among the leading countries worldwide on this score – fifth, to be precise. However, much of Germany’s innovation is playing out in sectors characterised by lower growth potential, one of which is the automotive sector.

What is more, China has emerged as more than just a strong rival in these middle technology sectors, as they are known. Overcapacities in the Chinese economy, including in the car industry, are also rippling out to the European market, exacerbating the competition and price wars further still.

Why the United States is a high tech leader

When it comes to high tech sectors boasting strong potential growth, there’s no getting around the United States. Much of this success is down to the fact that capital (including venture capital, which is all important for funding innovation) is far easier to mobilise in US markets. While 0.8% of GDP gets invested in venture capital in the United States, it is only 0.19% in Germany. Incentives would make sense here. In Italy, pension funds benefit from tax relief if they invest 5% or 10% in venture capital funds. Generally speaking, it is important to make it easier for firms to access financing via capital markets. Fingers crossed, then, that measures like the ones envisaged in Germany under the second Future Financing Act (Zukunftsfinanzierungsgesetz II) will be taken up again. These include, for example, making it easier for firms to go public and improving the general tax rules for investment in growth and innovation capital. 

There are a great many growth markets offering a wealth of opportunities for German firms, like cleantech, pharmaceuticals, bioscience or artificial intelligence. In this respect, it is very welcome to see businesses, associations and government team up as part of the WIN Initiative (Growth and Innovation Capital for Germany) to channel up to €12 billion into the venture capital ecosystem. 

Sweden: four times more IPOs than Germany

But what Germany needs besides more venture capital activity is funded pensions. Sweden is a great example of how important this can be for capital markets. That Nordic country, with a population of roughly ten million, has seen 474 IPOs in total since 2015. Germany, with its much larger population, has had just 115. Sweden ranks first in the EU in the number of SME IPOs.

This striking capital market culture is due, in part, to the country’s funded pension scheme, introduced back in the 1990s. Since its launch, Sweden’s AP7 pension fund has generated an average return of more than 10%. The Netherlands also has an adequate pension system, which is mainly built around capital-funded occupational pensions.

There are many more countries I could mention that have taken similarly successful measures. A common feature is that two effects come about. First, as society ages, these models take the pressure off government budgets.

Second, a country’s economy benefits from the capital market activities of its own population, which smooths the domestic funding of innovation and growth.

German households were holding €9 trillion in capital at the end of last September – that’s a huge amount of potential investment. At present, though, only 17% of the population aged 14 and over hold shares, equity funds or ETFs.

A strong capital market would benefit the domestic economy, the general public and government alike. It would enable the economy to be funded by the region, for the region, and add substantially to Europe’s autonomy. The general public would get better provision for their old age, one that is furthermore placed on a broader footing. Also, the pressure on government budgets would be reduced, which will be significant in view of the rising expenditure burden.

In times of distinct geopolitical uncertainty, it is important for Germany and Europe to be autonomous. The capital market has a key role to play in this regard.