Research Brief
This publication by the Bundesbank Research Centre provides regular news about recent studies and discussion papers by Bundesbank research economists.
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On the reference indicator for determining the Basel III countercyclical capital buffer Research Brief | 27th edition – July 2019
The global financial crisis was a lesson that it is not enough to merely monitor the stability of individual banks – the stability of the banking sector as a whole is also a crucial factor, which is precisely what the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB), a key instrument under the Basel III regime, is there to help safeguard. However, recent research indicates that adhering too strictly to the reference indicator envisaged under the Basel III framework might lead to a situation in which supervisors activate the CCyB either too late or not at all ahead of a future financial crisis.
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Why ECB announcements move markets Research Brief | 26th edition – June 2019
Whenever financial markets react to ECB Governing Council meetings, the explanation seems obvious: the Governing Council surprised markets, for instance, by changing its policy rate or by hinting at a future rate change. Any market reaction would thus stem from unexpected announcements about monetary policy. The response of different asset prices such as bond yields and stock prices, however, often contradicts this simple explanation. A new study indicates that these seemingly puzzling reactions are driven by information about the economic outlook that the ECB reveals via its announcements.
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More stability through liquidity regulation Research Brief | 25th edition – May 2019
Regulatory requirements for banks are often criticised as having an adverse impact on lending and hence, indirectly, on the real economy. A new research paper uses a theoretical partial equilibrium model to study the direct effects a liquidity coverage ratio could have on banks’ loan supply.
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How would a shift from taxing wages to taxing real estate affect the aggregate economy? Research Brief | 24th edition – January 2019
Tax reform designed to improve the conditions for macroeconomic growth without weighing on government budgets has been the topic of recent debate in Europe. One proposal on the table suggests reducing taxes on wages whilst at the same time raising those on land and property. A new study uses a modern DSGE model to examine how, within this model framework, such a shift would impact on the aggregate economy and to what extent property owners and tenants would be affected.
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A costly Brexit? De-liberalisation of trade in services and its potential cost Research Brief | 23rd edition – December 2018
In many areas, the ramifications of Brexit are not yet clear. It is likely, however, that the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union will lead to a de-liberalisation of trade in services. A new study examines what this change could mean for individual EU Member States.
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Tighter bank capital requirements do not reduce lending long term Research Brief | 22nd edition – November 2018
Many countries imposed tighter bank capital requirements following the 2008-09 financial crisis in order to repair the structural flaws in the banking system exposed during the crisis and thereby safeguard financial stability. A new study for the United States explores the macroeconomic effects of a tightening of bank capital requirements.
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The impact of Eurosystem bond purchases on the repo market Research Brief | 21st edition – September 2018
German sovereign bonds have become scarce on the European repo market over recent years. A new analysis investigates the impact of the Eurosystem’s monetary policy asset purchase programme on the repo market, and shows that central bank securities lending can help to counteract scarcity.
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How interest rate expectations respond to monetary policy in a low-interest-rate setting Research Brief | 20th edition – August 2018
In the low-interest-rate setting, the Eurosystem’s accommodative monetary policy has been relying to a greater extent on non-standard measures and forward guidance on the future path of policy rates. A new paper examines how these measures have worked across the term structure and how market expectations have evolved during the phase of low interest rates. The results illustrate that the Eurosystem can continue to influence market participants’ interest rate expectations at the effective lower bound by way of unconventional monetary policy measures.
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Two stress tests examine the resilience of German banks to a drop in real estate prices Research Brief | 19th edition – June 2018
German credit institutions are sufficiently capitalised to deal with potential losses from their residential mortgage exposures that could arise if house prices, which have been rising strongly since 2010, were to fall sharply. This is shown by the results of two current stress tests that have been developed by Bundesbank experts for risk analyses.
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The trouble with predictions Research Brief | 18th edition – April 2018
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Those familiar words are no less true in the world of economic forecasting. A new study considers how far into the future it makes sense to forecast.