It is often said that industry in oil-importing countries is especially hard hit when oil prices climb. However, a new study reveals that the manufacturing sector actually often does well during episodes of elevated oil prices. This is because, from a global perspective, that particular sector is a driving force behind oil price movements. The manufacturing sector’s healthy performance thus bolsters the economy of oil-importing countries in times of rising oil prices. Conversely, industry often exerts negative effects when oil prices fall.

The root causes of the Great Depression from 1929 to 1933 have been researched extensively. In this context, economic historians view central bank policy as having played a pivotal role, something which empirical modelling often fails to confirm. A new study likewise examines this influence empirically, but more explicitly takes into account the functioning of the international monetary system at the time – the international gold standard.

Institutional funds manage the majority of the assets under management of all German investment funds. This research brief documents that institutional funds act in a strongly procyclical manner: they actively invest in higher-yielding, longer-duration and lower-rated assets as yield spreads compress. We show that this intensifies asset price volatility and highlight reasons behind this procyclical investment behaviour.

At the beginning of 2015, the ECB Governing Council decided to implement an asset purchase programme to increase inflation by lowering longer-term interest rates. The Research Brief examines how the programme has affected prices and economic activity in Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The authors are particularly interested in whether the effects differ across countries.

Did German banks take on a particularly high level of risk during the financial crisis by investing in risky government bonds? A new study examines the behaviour of German banks between 2008 and 2014 and reveals that German banks – especially those that received government support and were comparatively undercapitalised – de-risked. This finding contrasts with the results of similar studies for banks in the euro area periphery countries.

This research brief reports how consumption plans and spending propensities were affected at the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. An online survey shows that private households have been significantly more cautious in their spending intentions, while the average marginal propensity to spend has remained at an elevated level.

Announcements of policy actions may influence households’ expectations about future individual and aggregate economic outcomes. We show that households have lowered their expectations with regard to the economic situation and that uncertainty about the economy increased during the initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also show that households who received information on stabilizing monetary and fiscal policy measures, surprisingly, become more pessimistic concerning their future income and GDP growth.

What is the appropriate exchange rate at which neither domestic nor foreign firms gain an unfair competitive advantage? A new study examines whether the estimation methods currently being used are conducive to answering this question. It turns out that this is often not the case.

Can wage hikes in Germany contribute to a reduction in global trade imbalances? A new study answers this question. Applying a general equilibrium model, it shows that, although wage hikes in Germany reduce the country’s trade surplus, the quantitative effects are relatively small and depend on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy response.

Recently, many central banks have begun communicating not just their current monetary policy, but also its probable predicted future path. However, the effectiveness of this communication hinges on how strongly it is able to influence the inflation expectations of households and firms. A standard property of macroeconomic models is that expectations respond very strongly to such announcements. A new theoretical study shows that the effects are much smaller in a model capable of matching survey evidence on expectations formation.