The Bundesbank sees the German economy continuing to grow in the coming months, albeit with a time lag. As from the beginning of 2024, the German economy is likely to return to an expansion path and gradually pick up speed, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said regarding the current Forecast for Germany. 

As part of the Bundesbank Invited Speakers Series, Beatrice Weder di Mauro held a talk entitled “Still too big to fail? The need for reform after the demise of Credit Suisse”. She was invited by the Bundesbank’s Research Centre, whose director, Falko Fecht, hosted the proceedings.  

The ECB Governing Council has selected “European culture” and “Rivers and birds” as potential themes for future euro banknotes. This decision was influenced by a wide-ranging survey: all Europeans had the opportunity to vote on potential themes for the new euro banknotes in the summer of this year. A decision on the final design of the new banknotes is expected in 2026.

On 24 and 25 November, the Bundesbank held its fifth Euro20+ event in Frankfurt am Main, inviting young people between the ages of 18 and 30 to discuss key economic policy and social issues with ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, amongst other guests. 

The current good earnings situation is enabling institutions to further strengthen their capital base and thus their resilience to adverse developments,said Claudia Buch, Vice-President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, at the presentation of the 2023 Financial Stability Review. Even in adverse scenarios, financial institutions should have sufficient levels of capital and liquidity to be able to absorb shocks on their own. Resilience, noted Vice-President Buch, would also require investment in IT infrastructure in order to be equipped to deal with cyber risks.

The German economy is set to recover only arduously from the period of weakness that has persisted since the outbreak of Russia’s war against Ukraine, write the Bundesbank’s experts in the Monthly Report. The industrial sector is still up against difficult conditions, and households’ mood for spending remained subdued in the third quarter. The experts do not expect economic output to see slight growth again until the first quarter of 2024.

In a speech at the European Banking Congress, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned against any premature easing of the tight monetary policy currently in place in the euro area. “According to Bundesbank model estimates, the tightening can be expected to have its maximum impact on economic activity in 2023 already, and on inflation only in 2024,” he said at the event in Frankfurt am Main. In other words, much of the inflation-dampening effect induced by monetary tightening is yet to materialise.

The European Central Bank and numerous Eurosystem central banks are merging their representative offices in Brussels into a shared hub. A team from the Bundesbank will also be stationed at the House of the Euro.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel believes digitalisation could provide further considerable impetus for growth and prosperity. “This can be achieved if digital transformation is approached with openness to new ideas and room for innovative solutions,” he said, speaking at the Ludwig Erhard Lecture of the INSM (Initiative New Social Market Economy) in Berlin. Mr Nagel also touched on the current monetary policy stance.

Initial figures from the Federal Statistical Office indicate that Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar effects. The data suggest that private consumption, in particular, declined. By contrast, investment in machinery and equipment provided positive stimuli.