German economic output probably declined somewhat in the final quarter of 2023, according to the January Monthly Report. Weak foreign demand continued to put a strain on industry and higher financing costs were still dampening investment. Uncertainty about the future direction of fiscal and climate policy is also likely to have weighed on economic activity, Bundesbank economists report. Moreover, consumers remained cautious and are unlikely to have increased their consumption by much.

The People’s Republic of China currently has severe economic problems to contend with. On top of that, relations between advanced economies in the West and China have worsened noticeably of late. These developments also present considerable risks for Germany. “If these risks materialise, Germany’s economy could take a huge hit,” the Bundesbank writes in an article in its January Monthly Report. The article explores Germany’s dependence on China, and is the first to also focus on potential risks to the financial system. 

A recent Bundesbank study looks at how cash will be used in the future. It outlines three different scenarios for cash payments in 2037. “The idea of the future scenarios is to help set the right course so that cash remains generally available and accepted as an attractive means of payment and store of value going forward,” explained Burkhard Balz as he introduced the study.

The turn of the year saw Executive Board member Sabine Mauderer take office as Chair of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), a global group of central banks and supervisory authorities committed to forging a more sustainable financial system. The NGFS’s mission is to analyse what climate change and nature loss mean for the financial system

According to preliminary calculations by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 was 0.3% lower than a year earlier. The calendar-adjusted decline in economic output was 0.1%. According to Destatis, high prices at all stages of the economy dampened economic activity. This was joined by unfavourable financing conditions due to rising interest rates and lower demand from Germany and abroad. 

As from the start of 2024, the national central banks of European Union (EU) Member States will see their respective share in the capital of the European Central Bank (ECB) change. This key determines what percentage share a national central bank must subscribe to the ECB’s capital of around €10.8 billion in total.

On 1 January 1999, the euro was introduced as book money. Three years later, people in Germany and eleven other European countries got their hands on euro banknotes and coins for the first time. Today, twenty-five years later, the euro is legal tender in twenty countries and has become an indispensable part of Europeans’ everyday lives. 

How are Bitcoin and co. regulated? The latest issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report provides information on the challenges involved in regulating crypto-assets and presents the EU Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCAR) and the international Basel standard governing the treatment of banks’ crypto-asset exposures. 

The Bundesbank sees the German economy continuing to grow in the coming months, albeit with a time lag. As from the beginning of 2024, the German economy is likely to return to an expansion path and gradually pick up speed, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said regarding the current Forecast for Germany. 

As part of the Bundesbank Invited Speakers Series, Beatrice Weder di Mauro held a talk entitled “Still too big to fail? The need for reform after the demise of Credit Suisse”. She was invited by the Bundesbank’s Research Centre, whose director, Falko Fecht, hosted the proceedings.