Shortly before the second lockdown in October 2020, firms in Germany expected an inflation rate of 1.5 percent over the next 12 months. For the past 12 months, they likewise estimated an inflation rate of 1.5 percent, a Bundesbank survey shows. “This suggests that enterprises’ inflation expectations were firmly anchored, despite the economic slump,” the Bundesbank writes in its most recent Monthly Report. 

What are the requirements that a digital euro needs to meet? This is a question explored in the latest edition of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report. After outlining the opportunities and risks presented by digital money, the Bank’s experts conclude that any solutions will need to be well-designed, secure and convenient.

Economic output in Germany declined in the first quarter of this year, according to the latest edition of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report. Many services sectors suffered larger losses than in the previous quarter due to containment measures being tightened and prolonged. In addition, the upturn in industrial output was not sustained in the first two months.

Many German enterprises have seen their production and business activity decline amid the coronavirus pandemic. There are major differences between the individual sectors, however, as a representative survey of more than 30,000 firms in Germany reveals. The Bundesbank has published the results of the four survey waves held in 2020 and 2021 in its latest Monthly Report.

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann says financing conditions play a crucial role on the road to price stability, but there’s more to it than just glancing at the indicators. If those indicators flag changes, he states, the job of central banks is to analyse exactly how those changes came about. “I believe that financing terms should be able to evolve in line with the economic recovery in the euro area. It’s not a matter of using monetary policy to cement a particular interest rate level,” Mr Weidmann said in a speech delivered virtually in Frankfurt.

In the year that the coronavirus pandemic began, general government debt in Germany was up by €275 billion to €2.332 trillion. The debt ratio, meaning the ratio of debt to gross domestic product, rose from 59.7% to 70.0% in 2020, which is the sharpest increase in the debt ratio within the space of a year since German reunification.

“Weaving a thread from yesterday to tomorrow by preserving knowledge and sharing experience” was the title given to a symposium in which the Bundesbank joined forces with the Institute for Banking and Financial History to celebrate the Bundesbank’s Historical Archives’ 50th year. Bundesbank Executive Board member Burkhard Balz paid tribute to the achievements of the archive’s staff.

The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) has released its latest report, entitled “Adapting central bank operations to a hotter world”, which outlines specific options available to central banks to factor climate-related risks into their monetary policy operations. Bundesbank Executive Board member Sabine Mauderer called the report a milestone.

According to the current issue of the Monthly Report, there is likely to be a steep fall in German economic output in the first quarter of 2021. In particular, activity in services sectors with high frequencies of interpersonal contact will probably have declined again sharply. By contrast, industry is profiting from stronger foreign demand and is likely to have bolstered economic activity in the current quarter.

2020 saw Germany’s current account surplus drop by €26½ billion to €232 billion. Expressed as a share of nominal gross domestic product, the balance declined by half a percentage point to 7%, which is significantly below the record level of 8½% in 2015.