The current issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report reports that German economic output was lower in the fourth quarter of 2022 than in the previous quarter. According to the Federal Statistical Office’s flash estimate, real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 0.2% on the quarter after seasonal adjustment. The Bundesbank’s experts are expecting yet another fall in economic output in the first quarter of 2023. The inflation rate is expected to continue to decline in the coming months, but underlying price pressure will remain high.

According to the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report, the rise in financing costs and high inflation had a strong impact on the German housing market. Prices for residential real estate continued to rise up until the middle of 2022, but in the second half of the year fell quite significantly for the first time in a long time. By contrast, price pressures came from the massive increase in construction prices and the slow pace of the expansion of housing supply. Residential real estate in Germany continued to be overvalued on an annual average overall.

In his speech at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel highlighted the importance of the European single market. He said that it was truly a source of prosperity and could help to more effectively overcome future challenges. He called for greater efforts to deepen the integration of the single market, particularly in the areas of services, digitalisation, and the capital market. Furthermore, he stressed that credible fiscal rules were essential for monetary union.

German banks applied tighter credit standards for loans at the beginning of 2023, as is shown by the results of the Bank Lending Survey (BLS) conducted by the Bundesbank. Institutions cited not only the higher cost of funds but also, in particular, the persistently high credit risk in all segments due to the deterioration in the economic situation as well as major uncertainty caused by the Ukraine war and by the high inflation as the main reasons for this.

Around 44,100 counterfeit euro banknotes with a nominal value of just under €2.7 million were withdrawn from circulation in Germany in 2022. There was a 5.2% increase in the number of counterfeits compared with the previous year.

In Germany, who reaches for their smartphone when paying? A new study by the Bundesbank shows that it is mainly younger people who do so, as well as those who shop and bank online and are open to technological trends. “Demographic developments thus make it likely that the use of mobile payment methods will increase in the future”, the Bundesbank’s economists write in the current issue of the Monthly Report. As things stand today, however, mobile payments are still lagging far behind cash and debit or credit cards.

In the final quarter of 2022, real gross domestic product is likely to have more or less stagnated, and thus exceeded previous expectations,” the Monthly Report states. Although high inflation and uncertainty surrounding the war in Ukraine weighed on the economy, the situation in the energy markets eased markedly compared with the third quarter. This, coupled with the government covering advance payments for gas bills, led to a distinct weakening in consumer price dynamics in December. However, prices for non-energy components such as food and industrial goods continued to increase sharply, according to the report.

The German economy grew last year despite inflation, the war in Ukraine and persistent supply problems. Price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 1.9%, according to initial calculations reported by the Federal Statistical Office. In calendar-adjusted terms, it found that economic growth amounted to 2.0%. “In 2022, the overall economic situation in Germany was affected by the consequences of the war in Ukraine and the extremely high energy price increases,” said Dr Ruth Brand, President of the Federal Statistical Office since 1 January 2023, at a press conference.

Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has appointed Joachim Nagel President of the Deutsche Bundesbank. Mr Steinmeier presented the certificate of appointment to Mr Nagel, who holds a PhD in economics, at Schloss Bellevue on 7 January. The ceremony marking the change of office for the tenth President of the Bundesbank will take place on 11 January in Frankfurt and will be streamed live.

According to the Bundesbank's latest Monthly Report, the first double-digit inflation rate in 70 years and a high degree of uncertainty about energy supply and its costs are weighing significantly on the German economy. In the forthcoming final quarter of 2022 and first quarter of 2023, economic output could therefore fall considerably and Germany be on the brink of a recession. However, the extent of this decline is extremely uncertain, according to the report.