According to Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, the German economy has probably moved past the trough of the coronavirus crisis. “The economy is growing again,” Mr Weidmann said at a speech in Frankfurt am Main.

According to survey data, people living in rural areas continue to have good access to cash, as shown by a study in the current issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report. Respondents still prefer to withdraw their cash from ATMs.

A new weekly activity index (WAI) published by the Bundesbank is designed to measure real economic activity in Germany in a timely manner. Measured by the WAI, economic activity between 16 March and 14 June 2020 was 7.4% below the activity recorded between 16 December 2019 and 15 March 2020.

Following the severe recession in the first half of this year, the German economy is likely to recover again. According to current Bundesbank projections, economic output will contract by 7% in 2020, yet in the next two years, real gross domestic product (GDP) could then increase by 3 to 4% per year.

A new weekly activity index (WAI) for the German economy has been developed at the Bundesbank to assess the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the economy from a near-time perspective. The Bundesbank is using this new indicator as an input in its short-term economic analysis.

Persistently low interest rates had various effects on financial investment in Germany in 2019. According to the Bundesbank’s latest Monthly Report, while households generally preferred low-risk and liquid forms of investment, a certain degree of searching for yield was evident among financial corporations.

“German economic output underwent a massive decline in the first quarter of 2020 owing to the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken to contain it,” the Bundesbank notes in the current issue of the Monthly Report. Since these measures were still in place in April and substantial restrictions are likely to persist in spite of an easing in some cases, the experts expect economic output in the second quarter to be significantly lower still.

According to preliminary calculations by the German Federal Statistical Office, German economic output fell by 2.2% in the first quarter of 2020. “This was the largest decline since the global financial and economic crisis in 2008/09 and the second-largest decline since German unification,” the experts in Berlin said.

The exchange rate statistics represent a collection of current and historical exchange rates for the euro and the US dollar in 192 countries. The Bundesbank provides additional data on topics such as exchange rate arrangements and monetary history for all of these countries.

According to Bundesbank Executive Board member Joachim Wuermeling, the situation is stable. “The current crisis shows that we, as supervisors, have learned the right lessons from the last crisis. Many of the measures, which, in some cases, came under sharp criticism, are now proving to be worth their weight in gold,” according to Mr Wuermeling.