In its Monthly Report, the Bundesbank’s economists write that the German economy recovered rapidly in the third quarter from its slump in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. However, they are not expecting the catch-up momentum to continue into the final quarter of 2020 due to the resurgence of the pandemic. On the other hand, they do not expect economic output to slump to a similarly subdued level as in the second quarter, either.

The Bundesbank invited civil society organisations to a virtual event in order to listen to their views on issues relating to the Eurosystem’s monetary policy strategy. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann thanked the participants for their contributions and announced that he would raise the insights gained in the ECB Governing Council’s deliberations.

Given the massive increase in government debt in the euro area, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann has warned of the risk of fiscal dominance. He sees a risk that political pressure could arise and grow to keep interest rates low for the long term. In a streamed speech, he therefore said that “We need to make it very clear that we are not going to place monetary policy at the service of fiscal policy. If we create a different impression, we are putting both our independence and our credibility at risk.”

Households have become more cautious in their spending intentions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Many fear future losses in income as well. These are the initial findings of a survey published by the Bundesbank in two research papers.

Despite the coronavirus pandemic, there are no signs of an abrupt correction in house prices in Germany, according to the Bundesbank’s assessment. However, this is contingent on the economic recovery not being “seriously” disrupted. According to the latest issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report, the pandemic has so far left little mark on the housing market.

“Economic output in Germany is likely to have risen sharply in the third quarter of 2020,” the Bundesbank writes in its latest Monthly Report. As measured by quarterly gross domestic product, the German economy may have already recouped slightly more than half of the dramatic losses sustained in the first half of the year. According to the experts, there will probably be only a relatively small rise in economic output in the current quarter.

German banks have seen their interest margin narrow during the negative interest rate period that began in 2014. Yet their profits remained stable up until the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. And there has been no evidence so far to suggest that German banks have been any less willing to grant loans, the Bundesbank writes in its latest Monthly Report. 

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann has expressed unease about the EU’s extensive joint borrowing to fund the Recovery and Resilience Facility in response to the coronavirus crisis. “This kind of borrowing should remain a one-off crisis measure,” he said, arguing that permanently raising joint debt does not square with the EU’s institutional framework.

In the first half of the year, the coronavirus pandemic led to the most severe economic crisis in decades. The German financial system has, however, proven to be stable during the pandemic, and so far fulfilled its key functions, said Claudia Buch, Vice-President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, at the presentation of the 2020 Financial Stability Review. Ms Buch added that, in the further course of the pandemic, corporate insolvencies are likely to increase, and this requires sufficient preparation.

The Bundesbank is launching its third survey asking enterprises about their assessments and expectations during the coronavirus crisis. In addition to the economic situation, the survey also covers the development of inflation and assessments of climate policy issues.