Contrary to expectations, German economic output fell slightly in the second quarter of 2024, the Bundesbank writes in its latest Monthly Report. Real gross domestic product (GDP) recorded a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Despite stabilising demand, industrial output resumed its downward trend in the second quarter. In the first quarter, it had experienced a brief recovery.

German economic output probably grew somewhat more slowly in the second quarter than expected, the Bundesbank writes in its latest Monthly Report. According to the Bundesbank, temporary hopes of an end to the weakness in the industrial sector were not realised, as industrial output declined sharply in May. In contrast to this, the recovery in the services sector continued, buoyed in part by private consumption. The inflation rate was somewhat lower again in June. Bundesbank economists believe that economic activity is likely to strengthen somewhat in the third quarter, but could fall a little short of the expectations expressed in the Bundesbank’s June forecast for Germany.

The current decade could mark a turning point in the international division of labour. The coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s attack on Ukraine caused severe disruptions to international supply chains. Production relationships could undergo lasting change owing to the two events, the Bundesbank’s economists write in the October Monthly Report. In their article, they explore whether this is already being reflected in Germany’s foreign direct investment (FDI) relationships.

Over the past few years, growth in loans to enterprises in Germany has been characterised by unusually strong ups and downs. The current issue of the Monthly Report assesses whether such developments in lending were in line with economic and interest rate developments, and examines the role played by credit supply and credit demand factors. The Bundesbank’s economists anticipate a gradual recovery in loans to enterprises starting from the second half of 2024.

Energy prices skyrocketed and the cost of groceries went up significantly: life suddenly became more expensive in many places starting in early 2021. In the current issue of the Monthly Report, the Bundesbank’s economists examine what was behind these price increases, why inflation has since eased again and what role was played by central banks. They also reveal why the path back to price stability has posed no major disruptions to the real economy so far.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel talks to the "Tagesspiegel" about the opportunities and problems facing Germany as a business location. According to Nagel, Germany could become a turnaround story if the structural problems are addressed and solved. Other topics include the development of inflation in Germany and the digital euro. 

The Bundesbank, institutional partner of the TechQuartier hub, recently invited start-ups and finance industry representatives to share their views on the future of money. In a session titled “Digital Money”, participants discussed the digital euro and innovative digital solutions for the financial industry. The event was hosted by the Bundesbank’s InnoWerk innovation lab.

In cooperation with the Dutch and Swedish central banks, the Bundesbank invited participants to an international conference on macroprudential topics. This year’s event in Eltville am Rhein addressed issues such as tackling interest rate risk, capital buffers for banks and non-standard monetary policy. The keynote speaker was Tobias Adrian of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The tax wedge on labour – i.e. the burden of taxes and social security contributions on labour income – is a frequently discussed topic. An article from the Bundesbank’s current Monthly Report examines the tax wedge on labour in greater detail. It looks, in particular, at the difference between pension contributions and tax payments. “A nuanced analysis of tax wedge ratios makes an important contribution to enabling better interpretation of tax wedges,” the authors of the article write. 

The Bundesbank has unveiled its TIA platform, enabling staff across the institution to harness artificial intelligence. Users can configure text-based intelligent assistants (TIAs) to their particular requirements and share them with others. And they don’t need to write a single line of code to do so, because state-of-the-art technology can digitalise processes in less than five minutes.