The monetary policy tightening seen in the euro area since the beginning of 2022 has led to changes in bank interest rates in Germany, the Bundesbank’s economists write in the latest Monthly Report. For the most part, interest rates on loans to enterprises have risen as strongly as expected, while those on loans for house purchase have increased more strongly than they were expected to. The interest rate on time deposits was raised rapidly and by as much as expected, while that on overnight deposits was adjusted upwards only marginally.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is expecting to see a further decline in the use of banknotes and coins. Even so, cash is deeply embedded in our everyday lives because of its unique characteristics, he said in a video message at the Bundesbank’s cash symposium in Berlin. Bundesbank Executive Board member Burkhard Balz stressed that cash still has a valid role to play even as payments become increasingly electronic.

In the Bundesbank’s view, the German economy is recovering only arduously from the crises of the past three years. “In particular, the German economy is still struggling with the consequences of high inflation. This is reducing citizens’ purchasing power,” Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said as he presented his institution’s latest projections. For the current year, the Bundesbank is expecting gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by 0.3% after adjustment for calendar effects. The economy is expected to expand again in 2024 and 2025, at rates of 1.2% and 1.3%, respectively.

German economic output is expected to rise again slightly in the second quarter of 2023, the Bundesbank writes in the May edition of its Monthly Report. Inflation, which is now broad-based and rather persistent, is increasingly leaving its mark on wage rises. There is much to suggest that firms will pass on part of the increased wage costs through their prices as the year progresses.

Congratulations! The European Central Bank (ECB) is celebrating its 25th anniversary. It has now been the single monetary authority for the euro area for a quarter of a century. Following the Bundesbank’s model, the ECB is politically independent and pursues price stability as its primary objective.

“Central banks and supervisors also need to consider nature-related risks and biodiversity loss,” urged Sabine Mauderer, member of the Bundesbank’s Executive Board, in her opening speech at this year’s Bundesbank Spring Conference. “Because there will be no stable climate without a healthy natural world – and vice versa.” President Joachim Nagel used his welcome address at the “Central Banks and Climate Change” research conference to stress that “by pursuing price stability, the Eurosystem is supporting the green transition”.

9 May is Europe Day – an annual day of commemoration to celebrate unity and peace in Europe. On this day back in 1950, Robert Schuman set out his idea for a new form of political cooperation in Europe, ultimately creating the European Union. “For me, Europe essentially means freedom, democracy and diversity,” said Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, honouring this anniversary. 

Climate change and the transition to a climate-neutral economy are also presenting banks with major challenges. On the one hand, extreme weather events can directly impair banks’ loan collateral if, for example, property is destroyed. On the other hand, the transition to a climate-neutral economy can have an indirect impact on banks if the underlying conditions for enterprises change substantially and sometimes unpredictably. Banks need to develop new methods in order to measure and manage the resulting risks. Supervisors will be keeping a close eye on the progress made by banks in this area over the next few years.

Household wealth in Germany increased between 2017 and 2021. For example, households’ average net wealth went up by €83,600 to €316,500 between those two years. In particular, households with low wealth saw strong growth relative to their existing wealth. This is the finding of a Bundesbank study regularly examining household wealth and finances (the Panel on Household Finances, or PHF). 

“The German economy beat last month’s expectations in the first quarter of 2023,” according to the Bundesbank’s latest Monthly Report. While persistently high inflation weighed on private consumption, industry saw a stronger recovery than expected. The Bundesbank is anticipating positive employment developments and a slight decline in the inflation rate in the coming months.