The October 2023 edition of the Monthly Report examines whether German and euro area price competitiveness is favourable. It also describes how state government finances developed in 2022 and finds that, despite large surpluses overall, recourse to emergency loans was extensive in some cases.

German credit institutions’ performance tended to deteriorate in 2022, Bundesbank experts write in the current issue of the Monthly Report. Profit for the financial year before tax did manage to creep up on the whole and, at €27.4 billion, remained well above the long-term average. However, this was driven mainly by a one-off effect at one institution. According to the Bundesbank, most categories of banks recorded significantly lower annual profit for the reporting year than in 2021.

German economic output is likely to contract somewhat in the third quarter of 2023, the Bundesbank writes in its Monthly Report. It is unlikely that private consumption will offer any discernible positive impetus. Households are still reluctant to spend despite the slight easing in price inflation, strong wage growth and favourable labour market. In addition, weak industry is weighing on economic output. 

The German economy is under considerable pressure to adapt, writes the Bundesbank in its September Monthly Report. Challenges are arising mainly from demographic change and the transition to a low-emission energy supply. Moreover, dependency on China for the procurement of key intermediate inputs entails risk. In the midset of the current debate concerning Germany’s alleged status as the “sick man of Europe”, the Bundesbank still sees the German economy as well positioned. According to our analyses, broad-based deindustrialisation is not on the table either, says Marcus Jüppner, co-author of the report. 

The Bundesbank’s September 2023 Monthly Report takes a look at se-lected aspects of the current dependencies and medium-term challenges for Germany as a business location. It also discusses the question of whether there are heterogeneous effects in the implementation of monetary policy in the euro area. The report further includes an analysis of the reliability of models for short-term economic forecasting during recent crises. Another article describes Member States’ financial relationships with the EU budget and the Next Generation EU off-budget entity in 2022. And finally, the performance of German credit institutions in 2022 is discussed.

The German economy is still experiencing a period of weakness. According to the Federal Statistical Office’s flash estimate, in the second quarter of 2023, seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product (GDP) stagnated at the level recorded in the previous quarter. The current issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report reports that weak foreign demand and higher financing costs are weighing on the economy. The large backlog of orders in industry and construction and abating supply bottlenecks prevented an even weaker development. The sound labour market acted as a tailwind for the economy. 

The August 2023 edition of the Monthly Report comments on the economic situation in Germany in summer 2023.