Does a less expansionary monetary policy, for example, an increase in interest rates, lead to lower inflation and dampened inflation expectations? Many empirical and theoretical studies suggest that it does. A new study, however, shows that, if inflation expectations diverge widely, a less expansionary monetary policy can lead to increased inflation and higher inflation expectations.

Rund 250 Experten aus der Finanz- und Kreditwirtschaft waren der Einladung der Bundesbank nach Frankfurt am Main gefolgt und nutzten die Gelegenheit, um über aktuelle Themen, Innovationen und Trends in der Branche zu diskutieren.

The September 2017 Monthly Report contains an article on monetary policy indicators at the zero lower bound on the basis of term structure models, and an analysis of the performance of German credit institutions in 2016. Explanations are also provided on the potential and risks of distributed ledger technologies in payments and securities settlement and on the changes and results in the process of extending the investment fund statistics.

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann has called on the euro-area countries to embrace fiscal prudence, arguing in a speech in Hamburg that the tighter the fiscal space, the more central banks will come under political pressure to stabilise economic activity in the short run – even if that does mean compromising on price stability.

The productivity of many firms evolves over time. This impacts on the optimal inflation rate – the rate of price increase with the least distortionary effect on relative goods prices. Our estimates for the United States suggest that, due to firm-level productivity changes, the optimal inflation rate has dropped from somewhat over 2% in the mid-1980s to a current level of roughly 1%.