The primary objective of the Eurosystem – which comprises the European Central Bank (ECB) and the national central banks in the euro area – is price stability. The ECB Governing Council focuses the monetary policy of the Eurosystem exclusively on this objective. Monetary policy measures are reflected on central banks’ balance sheets. Therefore, monetary policy measures can cause central banks’ profitability to fluctuate strongly over time. Losses are also a possibility.

2023 was a year of considerable financial burdens for the Bundesbank. The rise in euro area policy rates weighed on net interest income and the net result of the pooling of monetary income. The Bundesbank is therefore releasing its provisions for general risks, amounting to €19.2 billion, in full, and additionally tapping €2.4 billion of its reserves. This means that the Bundesbank is reporting a distributable profit of zero for financial year 2023. 

The extensive asset holdings built up through the Eurosystem’s monetary policy asset purchase programmes, in particular, will be a factor both now and going forward. Along with these asset holdings, commercial banks’ deposits with Eurosystem central banks have also increased in recent years. Owing to the policy rate hikes, the Bundesbank – like other Eurosystem central banks – now has to pay higher interest rates on the deposits held with it by commercial banks. At the same time, income from the portfolios of bonds will remain relatively stable for the time being, given that the interest on the bulk of these bonds is fixed for the longer term, and it is low. On balance, higher policy rates mean lower net interest income. That item can also turn negative – as it did in 2023. This means that losses are a possibility.

The Bundesbank’s balance sheet contains long-term low-interest-bearing securities held for monetary policy purposes on the assets side and short-term higher-interest-bearing deposits of commercial banks on the liabilities side. Commercial banks’ deposits are remunerated at the deposit facility rate, i.e. one of the policy rates. The higher policy rates are giving rise to considerable burdens in the Bundesbank’s profit and loss account for 2023. These burdens are disclosed under profit and loss item 1 “Net interest income”. They have also proportionally affected profit and loss item 5 “Net result of pooling of monetary income”. This is because the risk and returns arising from some securities held by the national central banks for monetary policy purposes have been pooled across the Eurosystem as monetary income. The burdens arising from the ECB’s securities holdings do not currently affect the Bundesbank: the Governing Council decided that the ECB’s losses for 2023 would not be borne by the national central banks. This means that the ECB’s current losses are not reflected in the Bundesbank’s 2023 annual accounts. Looking further ahead, though, these losses will also (proportionally) weigh on the Bundesbank’s profit and loss account. In future, the ECB could, for example, forgo profit distribution, or it could draw on the national central banks’ monetary income to cover losses in later years.

TARGET claims and liabilities in the Eurosystem are remunerated at the applicable main refinancing rate. Rising or falling interest income arising from Germany’s TARGET claims thus has an impact on the Bundesbank’s net interest income. However, interest rates on TARGET balances between national central banks do not change the profit or loss realised by the Bundesbank. This is because, ultimately, the interest income and interest expense resulting from the Eurosystem’s monetary income is pooled in its entirety and allocated to the national central banks according to the capital key. This also includes income and expense resulting from TARGET balances (and interest expense arising from commercial banks’ deposits). The actual size and distribution of national TARGET balances between the national central banks within the Eurosystem are irrelevant in this context. For example, when banks shift their deposits from the Bundesbank to the Banque de France, Germany’s TARGET balance is reduced. Conversely, the Banque de France’s TARGET balance increases. The total volume of interest income and expense attributable to TARGET balances does not change – it is allocated according to the capital key. The same generally applies to the ECB: the ECB’s monetary policy asset purchases resulted in a net TARGET liability on the ECB’s balance sheet. The ECB’s interest income and interest expense resulting from this part of TARGET balances are recorded in the ECB’s profit and loss account, but separately from the national central banks’ monetary income. However, in the event of profit distribution, they are likewise allocated among the national central banks according to the capital key. 

For more information on the individual items in the profit and loss account, see the Bundesbank’s annual reports.

In the years prior to the pandemic, euro area inflation was too low in terms of the monetary policy objective. The ECB Governing Council therefore adopted a series of monetary policy measures during this period to ensure price stability. These included large-scale asset purchases. Other major central banks around the world also set up similar purchase programmes. At the start of the pandemic, the ECB Governing Council initiated a further, temporary purchase programme designed to counteract the serious risks to price stability posed by the pandemic. The large-scale asset purchases played a major role in the sharp expansion of Eurosystem central banks’ balance sheets over the past few years. The additional entries on the assets side of the balance sheet are offset mainly by larger deposits from commercial banks on the liabilities side. These additional assets and deposits have caused the risks on central banks’ balance sheets to increase. One of these risks is interest rate risk. This stems from the fact that the bulk of the securities on the Bundesbank’s balance sheet are low-yielding over the long term, while the interest on commercial banks’ deposits is paid on a short-term basis. The strong rise in inflation in 2022 necessitated decisive monetary policy action. The ECB Governing Council therefore raised policy rates sharply. The higher interest rates mean that interest rate risk has also materialised and is gradually impacting on income.

The Bundesbank has made provisions to account for the financial risks on its balance sheet. As early as in its 2016 annual accounts, the Bundesbank began to build up provisions on its balance sheet for interest rate risk and to address these risks in its annual press conferences. Additional risk provisioning was the main reason why the Bundesbank did not distribute any profit in 2020 and 2021. Tapping into the provisions for general risks for 2022 reduced this item to €19.2 billion. The provisions for general risks will be released in full for 2023, and €2.4 billion will be withdrawn from the reserves to offset the residual loss for the year. This will leave €0.7 billion remaining in the reserves.

Looking ahead, there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with the persistence and scale of the financial burdens the Bundesbank will face. The Bundesbank expects its future financial burdens to be considerable and to last for some years. The Bundesbank’s financial buffers were still sufficient in 2023. In 2024 and beyond, however, the burdens are likely to exceed the remaining reserves, in which case the Bundesbank will report a loss carryforward. With the help of future profits, this loss carryforward will be offset over the course of time. The Bundesbank therefore does not expect to be distributing any profit for an extended period of time. 

Central banks differ from enterprises and commercial banks. This is because central banks always remain able to pay in their own currency. The Bundesbank’s balance sheet is sound. For this reason, the Bundesbank will remain able to fully discharge its tasks even in the event of a loss carryforward.

The Bundesbank already reported loss carryforwards back in the 1970s.

The Bundesbank’s balance sheet is sound. The Bundesbank has considerable assets, which are significantly in excess of its obligations. The degree to which the Bundesbank’s balance sheet is sound is reflected, amongst other things, in its sizeable revaluation reserves. The Bundesbank’s revaluation reserves amounted to €197 billion as at the end of 2023. In addition, the Bundesbank anticipates that its financial burdens will pass and that it will subsequently generate profits again.