The global economy needs institutions like the IMF Guest contribution by Joachim Nagel in the Börsen-Zeitung
As finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world gather in Washington, DC for the IMF Spring Meetings, international economic relations are more strained than most of us have probably ever experienced.
At a time when the rules-based global order is under imminent threat, it is up to all of us to defend this global order and the institutions upon which it is built. I see an urgent need for policymakers to clearly articulate the benefits that these institutions and a stable international monetary system deliver for all countries.
The IMF ranks among the most important international organisations. It helps preserve the stability of the global monetary and financial system by providing its member countries with policy advice or, if necessary, financial assistance to prevent and overcome economic and financial crises. The IMF is a cornerstone of the rules-based international monetary system that is so vital for our prosperity.
One enduring feature of the IMF is its strong ability to adapt to evolving global economic conditions, in part because it regularly evaluates the design of its frameworks and policies. Indeed, the IMF is planning to review two fundamental areas – the conduct of surveillance and the design of its lending programmes, including conditionality – in the near future.
Surveillance is the IMF’s key crisis prevention tool. Given the current challenges, it is crucial to keep our understanding of international spillover effects up to date at all times. Significant progress has been made since the global financial crisis, but we still need to improve what we know about how economic developments are transmitted from one country to another. Despite signs of fragmentation, our world is still very much interconnected and the economic linkages have grown in complexity in recent years. Needless to say, changing trade patterns are a factor in this. But enhanced analyses are also needed for the financial sector. That’s a task the IMF is uniquely placed to perform.
Furthermore, factors like artificial intelligence, digital money and the move towards a more multipolar world will significantly affect our economies. We need to know more about their impact on global monetary and financial stability. Climate-related risks such as floods, droughts and storms can take their toll on banks’ and insurers’ balance sheets. Political uncertainty and geoeconomic fragmentation will also affect the financial sector and real economy. By understanding the systemic implications of these trends, we will be better equipped to overcome the challenges that lie ahead.
Unfortunately, though, crisis prevention is only part of the story. When crises do occur, IMF lending plays a hugely important role. To make sure the funds are used effectively, they are granted subject to conditions as a way of ensuring that a crisis can be overcome.
Currently, in some programmes, funds are disbursed early, while policy actions only need to be implemented later. I would suggest – where feasible – bringing policy actions forward and pushing back disbursements. This would enhance programme effectiveness and help make more efficient use of the funds. In addition, including contingency measures more often could help programmes respond more flexibly to unforeseen events.
The global economy needs global institutions like the IMF. It is a cornerstone of the global monetary and financial system, and thus also of our collective well-being. Let me be clear: the Bundesbank and I are committed to the IMF as an important player in promoting economic and financial stability and thus also our prosperity.