Survey on Consumer Expectations (BOP-HH)

Customers in a shopping street ©Picture Alliance / Image Broker

What are households’ expectations? Since 2019, the Deutsche Bundesbank has been investigating this question by surveying households in Germany on a regular basis (Bundesbank Online Panel Households).

Inflation expectations

In October 2024, average inflation expectations of individuals in Germany remained unchanged at 2.8% over a 12 month horizon – a figure below the 3% mark for the third time this year. 44% of individuals expected inflation rates to remain unchanged or virtually unchanged during this period. Average inflation expectations three years ahead decreased for the fourth consecutive month and stood at 3.0% in October.

Inflation expectations
Real estate price expectations

In October 2024, individuals in Germany maintained the expectation that real estate prices in their region would increase by 4.5% on average over the next 12 months. When asked about their qualitative expectations, 50% of individuals expected real estate prices to increase and 13% expected them to decrease over the next 12 months.

Real estate price expectations
Income expectations

The expectations of individuals regarding growth in their net household income over the next 12 months dropped to €75 in October – the lowest value for the current year. The median remains constant at €125. This can be explained by the fact that a large share of individuals have considered income growth of between €0 and €250 to be most likely each month since the survey was launched.

Income expectations
Other findings

The Deutsche Bundesbank conducts regular surveys of households’ expectations for unemployment, economic growth, rent prices, real estate prices, and interest rates on savings and loans. These data are used to calculate index figures, from which corresponding trends can be easily derived.

Other findings
Background information

What is inflation? How is it measured? What role is played by inflation expectations? Why is the Deutsche Bundesbank interested in changes in uncertainty regarding inflation? The text and video featured on the following pages provide more information on these and similar questions.

Background information