In the current issue of its Monthly Report, the Bundesbank uses scenario calculations to analyse the potential macroeconomic impact of a further escalation of the war against Ukraine. According to the experts, German real GDP this year could be down by as much as 2% compared with 2021. The inflation rate in Germany in 2022 could be 1½ percentage points higher than expected in the European Central Bank’s March projection.

In the view of Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, the ECB Governing Council’s forward guidance has contributed to lowering long-term interest rates and stimulating the euro area economy. However, at the 2019 European Banking Congress in Frankfurt, he also highlighted the risks and side effects of a highly expansionary monetary policy. ECB President Christine Lagarde called for increased public investment.

The German economy in the international division of labour: a look at value-added flows

Der EZB-Rat hat heute beschlossen, die drei Leitzinssätze der EZB um jeweils 50 Basispunkte anzuheben, und aufgrund der erheblich nach oben korrigierten Inflationsaussichten gehen wir davon aus, dass wir sie weiter erhöhen werden. 

Germany’s current account recorded a surplus of €18.9 billion in November 2021, up €1.3 billion on the previous month’s level. The surplus in the goods account declined slightly, but the surplus in invisible current transactions, which comprise services as well as primary and secondary income, increased more strongly.