The International Monetary Fund reports that the German economy can look forward to the expansion continuing in the near term, but warns in its Article IV Consultation that external imbalances could cloud the upbeat outlook over the medium term.

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann has defended the definition of price stability over the medium term as maintaining inflation rates of below, but close to, 2% in the euro area. Speaking at a joint conference of the Bundesbank and the Banque de France in Paris, Mr Weidmann waded into the debate on setting a higher inflation target and warned of the impact that such a target could have on macroeconomic stability.

The current June Bundesbank Monthly Report contains an article on the debate about raising the inflation target. Those in favour of this argue that a higher target rate of price increase would provide central banks with more room for manoeuvre for monetary policy countermeasures in times of crisis. The Bundesbank’s economists contend that the negative implications of a higher inflation target are largely being ignored in this debate.

The June 2018 edition of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report outlines the prospects for the German economy on the basis of macroeconomic projections for 2018 and 2019, with a look ahead at the year 2020. In addition, the Bank’s experts discuss the advantages and drawbacks of central banks raising the inflation target.

According to the Bundesbank’s latest projection, the economic boom in Germany will continue until 2020, although growth will not be quite as strong as it had been previously. For 2018, the Bundesbank expects calendar-adjusted growth of 2.0%, which will fall only slightly to 1.9% in the coming year. The economy is likely to grow by 1.6% in 2020.

At its meeting in Riga, Latvia, on 14 June 2018, the Governing Council of the ECB decided to end its asset purchases, most likely at the end of 2018. Subject to incoming data confirming the Governing Council’s medium-term inflation outlook, purchases are set to initially be halved to €15 billion per month as from October 2018 and then be discontinued entirely at the end of the year.

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann says that Germany and France must work in concert when it comes to reforming the EU. Speaking in Brussels, Mr Weidmann welcomed the reform proposals put forward by French President Emmanuel Macron, saying that they have provided significant impetus.

The Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) published the mandates of its three workstreams on 29 May. More central banks and international organisations have also joined the network.

The German economy did not grow as quickly in the first quarter of 2018 as it did in the last three months of 2017. While the Bundesbank expects the underlying economic boom to continue in spite of the dip in growth, its economists concede in the May Monthly Report that "the underlying cyclical trend may well have decelerated unexpectedly quickly to a pace of growth that is now only slightly above potential growth."