“The German economy is overcoming the coronavirus crisis and is poised for the start of a strong upswing,” writes the Bundesbank in its semi-annual projection. The Bundesbank’s economists expect that gross domestic product will reattain its pre-crisis level as early as this summer. It is likely that the rate of inflation will rise strongly to 2.6% in 2021.

“Economic output in Germany is likely to have risen sharply in the third quarter of 2020,” the Bundesbank writes in its latest Monthly Report. As measured by quarterly gross domestic product, the German economy may have already recouped slightly more than half of the dramatic losses sustained in the first half of the year. According to the experts, there will probably be only a relatively small rise in economic output in the current quarter.

Germany’s current account recorded a surplus of €16.5 billion in August 2020, down €4.6 billion from the previous month’s level.

A new weekly activity index (WAI) for the German economy has been developed at the Bundesbank to assess the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the economy from a near-time perspective. The Bundesbank is using this new indicator as an input in its short-term economic analysis.

According to Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann central banks could do more to curb global warming. In an op-ed for the “Financial Times” he pointed out a number of possible courses of action. However, he added, central banks should stay focused on their primary objective, price stability. “When it comes to saving the planet, central banks do not have a magic wand”, he wrote.

The German banks responding to the Bank Lending Survey (BLS) once again tightened their credit standards for loans to enterprises somewhat in the first quarter of 2021. Standards remained unchanged for loans to households for house purchase, and they were eased marginally for consumer credit and other lending to households.