The German economy is currently following a growth path that is primarily underpinned by domestic demand. Commenting on the Bundesbank's latest semi-annual projection, the Bank's President Jens Weidmann said: "The main drivers are the favourable labour market situation and substantial increases in households' real disposable income, though foreign trade is currently being hampered by frail demand from the emerging market economies." This is making itself felt on industrial investment, the Bundesbank's economists write.

Contrary to expectations, German economic activity expanded in the third quarter of 2022, the Bundesbank writes in its current Monthly Report. Despite high inflation and uncertainty about future energy supply, real gross domestic product surpassed its pre-pandemic level for the first time. However, the Bundesbank’s experts believe that downward forces are likely to clearly predominate in the coming months. They still expect the German economy to enter a recession in the final quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, though the scale of the recession is extremely uncertain. “Double-digit inflation could even persist into the new year,” the report states.