The German economy is set to recover only arduously from the period of weakness that has persisted since the outbreak of Russia’s war against Ukraine, write the Bundesbank’s experts in the Monthly Report. The industrial sector is still up against difficult conditions, and households’ mood for spending remained subdued in the third quarter. The experts do not expect economic output to see slight growth again until the first quarter of 2024.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to have contracted somewhat in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest Monthly Report. Weak foreign demand and higher financing costs weighed on the German economy. Tailwinds came from the still robust labour market and steep wage increases amidst subsiding inflation, the economists report.

Households’ financial assets grew by €161 billion to €7,618 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021. Taking all transactions and valuation effects into account, growth was thus significantly higher than in the (weak) third quarter.

“The impact of Russia’s attack on Ukraine is likely to place a noticeable strain on economic activity in Germany from March,” the Bundesbank writes in its Monthly Report. Energy commodity prices have surged which will probably put a damper on household consumption and the production of energy-intensive industries. Together with the looming disruptions to foreign trade and supply chains and the heightened uncertainty, the consequences of the war are likely to slow the economic recovery originally expected by a significant degree.

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann has conflicting views on the United States’ decision to initially exempt the European Union from the recently enacted tariffs on steel and aluminium. Though it avoided an open trade conflict, the agreement reached between the United States and the EU was no victory for international free trade, Mr Weidmann explained during a speech in Vienna.

Cash is a quick and cheap means of payment in the German retail trade sector. On average, cash payments take just over 22 seconds and cost around 24 cent per transaction, according to a study on the costs of cash payments in the retail trade sector which the Deutsche Bundesbank carried out in cooperation with EHI Retail Institute.