The German economy is currently following a growth path that is primarily underpinned by domestic demand. Commenting on the Bundesbank's latest semi-annual projection, the Bank's President Jens Weidmann said: "The main drivers are the favourable labour market situation and substantial increases in households' real disposable income, though foreign trade is currently being hampered by frail demand from the emerging market economies." This is making itself felt on industrial investment, the Bundesbank's economists write.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has warned of persistently high inflation. “Even before the war against Ukraine, the inflation rate was very high. [...] Given the surge in energy prices on account of the war, consumer price inflation is likely to pick up again substantially, particularly in the near term,” Mr Nagel said in a speech delivered at a change of office ceremony in Hanover. As members of the ECB Governing Council, he remarked, we must now ensure that the strong inflation does not become entrenched and does not lead to excessively high inflation in the medium term.

Germany’s current account recorded a surplus of €18.9 billion in November 2021, up €1.3 billion on the previous month’s level. The surplus in the goods account declined slightly, but the surplus in invisible current transactions, which comprise services as well as primary and secondary income, increased more strongly. 

In the current issue of its Monthly Report, the Bundesbank uses scenario calculations to analyse the potential macroeconomic impact of a further escalation of the war against Ukraine. According to the experts, German real GDP this year could be down by as much as 2% compared with 2021. The inflation rate in Germany in 2022 could be 1½ percentage points higher than expected in the European Central Bank’s March projection.

Despite the massive shock triggered by the coronavirus pandemic and what were, at times, very stringent containment measures, the number of corporate insolvencies dropped substantially in 2020, the Bundesbank writes in its Monthly Report. This was due in part to the temporary suspension of the obligation to file for insolvency, which is subject to certain conditions. German enterprises’ sales fell far less significantly than they had done during the financial and economic crisis of 2009, the Bank’s economists explain.

Germany’s current account recorded a surplus of €15.4 billion in October 2021, down €4.6 billion on the previous month’s level.