The People’s Republic of China currently has severe economic problems to contend with. On top of that, relations between advanced economies in the West and China have worsened noticeably of late. These developments also present considerable risks for Germany. “If these risks materialise, Germany’s economy could take a huge hit,” the Bundesbank writes in an article in its January Monthly Report. The article explores Germany’s dependence on China, and is the first to also focus on potential risks to the financial system. 

Vice-President Claudia M. Buch points out that an unexpected economic downturn could be amplified if the banking sector deleverages to maintain capital ratios. Hence, “banks must maintain capital buffers designed to absorb losses and thereby stabilizing lending”, Buch stated at an event in Dublin. 

Households’ financial assets grew by €161 billion to €7,618 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021. Taking all transactions and valuation effects into account, growth was thus significantly higher than in the (weak) third quarter.

“The impact of Russia’s attack on Ukraine is likely to place a noticeable strain on economic activity in Germany from March,” the Bundesbank writes in its Monthly Report. Energy commodity prices have surged which will probably put a damper on household consumption and the production of energy-intensive industries. Together with the looming disruptions to foreign trade and supply chains and the heightened uncertainty, the consequences of the war are likely to slow the economic recovery originally expected by a significant degree.