German economic output contracted in the final quarter of 2023, according to the February Monthly Report. Weak demand from abroad was still putting a strain on industry, while higher financing costs continued to dampen investment. Bundesbank economists believe that uncertainty about transformation and climate policy is also likely to have weighed on economic activity. Some headwinds will probably persist into the first quarter of 2024 as well. Economic output could therefore decline again somewhat. 

Economic activity in Germany may have more or less stagnated in the first quarter of 2022, the Bundesbank’s economists write in the current issue of the Monthly Report. They expect Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine to have had only a limited impact on Germany’s economy at first. Even so, the repercussions of the war are likely to significantly weaken the recovery, which had actually got off to a strong start. “Disruptions to foreign trade and supply chains, soaring energy prices and heightened uncertainty are weighing on enterprises and households,” the report states.

At the end of 2021, Germany’s primary outward foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks were up 8% on the year at €1,506 billion. Stocks of FDI in Germany show a different picture. A decline was recorded for the first time in a long period, with stocks down 2% to €852 billion. At €169 billion, German FDI flows abroad proved robust for 2022, despite being down slightly on the exceptionally high level of the previous year. By contrast, FDI flows from abroad to Germany almost halved to €44 billion.

According to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 was 2.7% higher than in 2020 (in price-adjusted terms). “Economic activity in 2021 was once again highly dependent on coronavirus infection rates and the associated containment measures,” said Georg Thiel, President of the Federal Statistical Office, at a press conference in Wiesbaden.